December 2, 2014. Vilnius. Inreal forecasts that in 2015 the prices of new construction apartments will remain stable in Vilnius and Klaipeda, will grow by 1-2 percent in Kaunas, and may rise by 3-5 percent in Palanga. The forecasts are based on the liquidity rate of apartments, which reflects the ratio of supply and 12-month sales as well as allow forecasting possible future fluctuations.

In late October 2014, the liquidity rate of new construction housing had been growing in Vilnius and reached the value of 1.4. Current trends in supply and transactions in the capital city show that undoubtedly this rate will be increasing for the upcoming 6-12 months. The exact liquidity rate will depend not only on the purchasers, but also on the developers’ actions. When RE purchasing wave vanishes, the developers will have to reduce the amount of new projects in 2015, or, otherwise, they would significantly increase the competition and impede the opportunities to realize their own as well as other projects, what is likely to result in price reduction, thus this scenario is not attractive for the developers. “Assuming that the developers will remain rational and develop less new projects next year than this year, meanwhile the realization rates will remain similar to the one in the last months, we forecast that the liquidity rate of new construction apartments in Vilnius will be reaching 1.5-2 after 6 months and 1.7-2.4 after 12 months”, – stated Arnoldas Antanavicius, the Head of Consulting and Analysis Department of Inreal. Thus, according to him, there will be no backgrounds for the prices of new construction apartments to grow in Vilnius in 2015 – they will remain stable. In late October 2014, the average price of new construction apartments in Vilnius was reaching 5,310 LTL/sq.m., i.e. by 3.4 percent more than a year ago. 

In late October 2014, the liquidity rate of new construction housing in Kaunas remained stable – was reaching about 1.4. This rate is likely to increase in the upcoming 6-12 months, because the market of new construction apartments in Kaunas is supplied with more apartments than purchased. Assuming that similar development and purchase rates will remain in Kaunas, the analysts of Inreal forecast that the liquidity rate of new construction apartments in Kaunas market will be reaching 1.4-1.8 after 6 months and 1.5-2 after 12 months. In 2015, Kaunas market will remain well-balanced and the prices of new construction apartments should increase by 1-2 percent within a year. In late October 2014, the average price of new construction apartments in Kaunas was reaching 3,840 LTL/sq.m., i.e. by 1.7 percent more than a year ago. 

In late October 2014, the liquidity rate of new construction housing in Klaipeda has been further deceasing and was reaching approx. 2.2. This rate is likely to decrease in the upcoming 6-12 months, because the amount of new construction apartments supplied in Klaipeda market is very low, and the sale rates are improving. In 2015, the liquidity of new construction apartments in Kaunas market is likely to reach approx. 2, therefore the prices of new construction apartments will remain stable. In late October 2014, the average price of new construction apartments in Klaipeda was reaching 4,290 LTL/sq.m., i.e. as much as last year. 

In late October 2014, the liquidity rate of new construction housing in Palanga – the main second home market – has been further deceasing and was reaching approx. 1.2. This rate is likely to remain stable within the upcoming 6-12 months, due to very active and liquid market of new construction apartments in Palanga. “Assuming that in 2015 similar development and purchase rates will remain in Palanga, we may forecast that the liquidity rate of new construction apartments in Palanga will be reaching 1.1-1.2 after 6 months and 1-1.3 after 12 months. As a result, we may forecast that the prices of new construction apartments should grow by 3-5 percent within a year”, - stated A. Antanavičius. In late October 2014, the average price of new construction apartments in Palanga was reaching 5,720 LTL/sq.m., i.e. by 9.9 percent more than a year ago.